Naples November 2024 Housing Market Update

So much has happened since we were last together. Even though I am writing to you in mid-December, the subject matter for this article is to highlight the most recent Naples real estate sales numbers that were released on December 1 for the month of November. I like to state this every so often as there are always new people joining this mailing list on a monthly basis. The numbers published by the Naples Area Board of Realtors on Dec 1 are often a bit different than the numbers available mid-month and even later in the month. This is due to agents closing out transactions late and maybe a few corrections performed by our local MLS throughout the month. If you follow me on social media, you will see an updated graphic (much better and more accurate than NABOR’s) that I post toward the end of the month as an update to this article. If you haven’t followed one of my accounts, please do so through the links below as I only send an email (this one) out once a month, but share lots of relevant Naples information on those social media platforms.

So we have cruised past the 2024 Presidential election and we are still a country. Whew. Now we are smack dab in the middle of the holidays and there are signs that Naples is about to explode with sales. While the Overall Naples Market experienced the 2nd lowest month for sales in November 2024 going all the way back to 2011 at 451 sales, ZIP 34102 and Golden Gate Estates spiked with an increase over November 2023 of 8.3% for 34102 and a whopping 17.5% increase for Golden Gate Estates. Sales for 34103 were down 18.2% in November 2024 from the year prior, but wait for the December and January numbers to come out. ZIP 34103 (Park Shore, Moorings) made huge gains in accepted contracts jumping 40% from the year prior while ZIP 34102 (Old Naples, Royal Harbor, Aqualane Shores) jumped 41.2%! I guess the whole “I’m waiting to see what happens with the election” coming from buyers was fairly true.

Overall Naples Market – 451 | – 17.9%

34102 – 26 | + 8.3%

34103 – 18 | – 18.2%

Golden Gate Estates – 47 | + 17.5%

Pending Sales are important to look at because they indicate buyer sentiment. Of all the metrics we look at to decipher the Naples housing market, I believe pending sales are one of the strongest. Look at the stats below. All of our county areas are up from last November with the Overall Naples Market posting the biggest yearly November gain, ever, to my knowledge. This is also a 45.7% increase from October 2024. As mentioned above, 34102 & 34103 are way up along with Golden Gate Estates. Rates are kind of teetering around the high 6’s for conventional 30yr and there is a Fed meeting set for December 17-18. Usually the lenders around the country price in their mortgage rates ahead of these meetings as they are more based on the 10-year Tnote than the fed funds rate. Talk to a one of these qualified lenders if you want more info on that. I’m just a little ‘ol REALTOR® from Naples.

Golden Gate Estates is, again, posting positive numbers bringing the Pending Sales for the month of November up 18.4%. Most of the sales occur in 34120, because there is much more Inventory and Total Sales in 34120 than 34117. Even though the amount of Pending’s over November 2023 was almost the same for both Golden Gate Estates ZIP codes – 7 more for 34120 and 8 more for 34117 – The 8 for 34117 make up a larger percentage gain, because there are fewer to compare with. Example; In November 2023, there were 65 Pending’s for 34120 and 10 Pending’s for 34117. Fast forward to November 2024 and 34120 gained 7 for a total of 72 Pending’s, while 34117 gained 8 Pending’s for a total of 18. So 34117 is up 80% on Pending’s, while 34120 is “only” up 10.8%. See how digging into the details can really open up the big picture? Speaking of big picture, I hope you consider my beautiful listing at 2112 16th ST NE in Golden Gate Estates. Built in 2018, the 2.58 acres parcel is all upland and there is a 2400sf shop with a 200-amp panel already wired up. At 2,589sf It’s really a fantastic property. Contact me for a private showing!

 

If you read my articles with any sort of regularity, you will know that I like to compare current sales numbers with sales numbers recorded before covid, when things were “normal”, It’s really one of the best things we can do to make sense of all the chaos. There needs to be a determined constant, at least I think there does if I can recall my 10th grade science class. I have been saying for months and even years now that despite rising Inventory and Days on Market “we are not even to the level of inventory or Days on Market that we experienced pre-covid”. Well, I think we are pretty much there now. Maybe that is why we are seeing a big spike in Pending’s? Folks, I am reporting here for the first time that I now believe we are officially in a BUYER’S MARKET. Months of Inventory for the Overall Naples Market have now eclipsed 8 months for the first time since April 2019. The highest Months of Supply has ever been per the Naples Area Board of Realtors is February 2017 when we were at 9.3 months.

Months of Supply is the number of months it would take to sell out of the current inventory of properties at the current Days on Market. This metric has a history of climbing during January and February, so expect to see Inventory rise more and Months of Supply rise more. In a normal world, that usually means prices come down, but a lot of homeowners right now have a great mortgage rate and lots of equity. Sure, there are people who need to sell, and they will be making deals with buyers, who, by the way, have the upper hand right now. But we may not see a big dip in home prices over the next couple of months. This coming summer, maybe. Days on Market and Months of Supply are largely lining up with Pre-covid numbers, finally. My prediction is that we will start seeing less and less of these high percentage changes from here on out, unless something catastrophic happens. Maybe those drones over Jersey will cause a run on the banks? I know, don’t say that out loud. Sorry.

The last metric I want to touch on is Overall Inventory. There are now 1000 more homes on the market than there were in August 2024. That is about a 23% increase in Inventory over the last 3 months. To give some perspective on the November 2024 Inventory level of 5,413 homes and condos for sale (up 33.8%), we had 5,477 homes and condos for sale in March 2024, which is usually the month that we peak out on Inventory before losing Inventory for the “off-season’. Looking at years past, the increase in Inventory from November to March is about 1000 homes. So if the  Naples Housing Market is going to follow in its own ways, we should see about 6400 properties available by March. Which still isn’t as high as the peak in 2017 when February hit 6,991 or February 2019 when the peak was 7,306. We may see some records broken soon which can affect your life one way or the other. My advice, start thinking about if you need to make any changes in your life. If not, great. If so, start taking action. I think that is just sound advice no matter what.