Naples October 2024 Housing Market Update

This month’s real estate sermon is once again going to look at the Naples Housing Market and how it performed in October 2024. Keep an eye out for my infographic later this month that shows updated sales stats as these numbers below are fluid for several weeks. As we have for most of 2024, let’s take a look at the Overall Naples Market, ZIP 34102, ZIP 34103 & Golden Gate Estates, which is a combo of ZIP’s 34120 & 34117.

The Overall Naples Market took a dip in October, and I don’t mean in the Gulf. Though the Gulf took a dip into a few homes, unfortunately in October with Hurricane Milton. Combining Single Family Homes & Condos, The Overall Naples Market Median Sales Price declined 3.6% to $568,500 in October 2024 over October 2023, hitting the lowest Median Sales Price since October 2022 when we were at $555, 000. Aside from the little bump we saw in August 2024, when the Median Price rose $5,000 to $595,000, we really have been declining in Median Price since the high back in May 2024 when we were at $649,500. This is an $81,000 loss over the summer. Single family homes did better with a 3.2% increase over October 2023, but condos still show softening with an 8.1% decline. It’s a different story, though, when you look at condo performance in specific ZIP codes 34102 & 34103. It really gets too much in the weeds for the larger audience here, so if you want to discuss the details of condos in those specific ZIP’s, or any other ZIP’s, send me an email or call. I am happy to provide you with info. Again with SFH’s (Single Family Homes) & Condos combined, ZIP’s 34102 & 34103 did really well, clocking in at 5.8% and 7.4% higher in October 2024 than October 2023, respectively. Golden Gate Estates was sluggish on price growth coming in at 5.8% under October 2023. Pending Sales are way up in Golden Gate Estates for October 2024, so watch for the Median Sales Price to jump either in November or December. Better jump on 2112 16th St NE ASAP.

 

Overall Naples Inventory for October 2024 continued to climb from the low of 4,342 in August 2024 homes for sale to 4,750, which is 30.9% higher than October 2023. While that seems horrible, make sure and look at the graph below to see that we are still 500 – 1,000 listings short of the Inventory levels of 2016-2019. Will SFH’s and condo listings continue to rise and sales slow due to stubborn affordability issues? Or will a reformed economy bid well for buyers in a way that revitalizes the market, causing pending sales to rise, thus potentially holding prices steady, or even increasing them? Time will tell. Confidence in the market is made up of more than just warm feelings and optimism. The dollars and cents have to… well, make sense. There are a lot of unprecedented things happening in America right now. The whole banking system may fundamentally change with talk of going back to the gold standard. There is also a potential labor crisis for home builders as mass deportations are set to be initiated on Jan 20, 2025. The reality is, farmers and homebuilders utilize undocumented workers and probably under pay them, and in the absence of those skilled workers, production goes down. I have seen articles suggesting that vocational work among Gen Z is sharply increasing, but there will likely be a lag in transferring this work over to the new generation. I am really not equipped to render an opinion or forecast on any of those details, but I am confident in stating that human desire and needs will not change, both overlap with regards to housing. We all need housing and desire nice things. And why shouldn’t we? Because we are capable of excellence, we should strive for it.

I mentioned Pending Sales above, and while ZIP’s 34102 & 34103 and the Overall Market did not have a stellar October 2024, Golden Gate Estates is up 57.6% from October 2023. While that only equates to 6 more pending sales that September 2024, we are headed in the right direction. Looking back over the years, the Overall Naples Market tends to drag on Pending Sales basically from when “season” ends at the end of March, until it begins again in January. Oh how important our vacationers are to the Naples economy. At some point, doesn’t it make sense that the “season” won’t really matter as much as it does? That Naples will experience the same activity all year long? Traffic certainly suggests that, so does all the rezones, road widening and development. Most of what I see on the Golden Gate Estates Facebook groups is a barrage of complaints about how the Estates is becoming too busy. If you know, you know. Can someone tell me why the county approved yet ANOTHER school on Immokalee Rd? I digress. While Golden Gate Estates is seeing increases in buyer activity, the Overall Naples Market had its lowest buying month since September 2017 when contracts clocked in at a weak 267. ZIP 34102 had its worse month in 2 years while ZIP 34103 had the lowest contracts signed in 4 years. This could just have been a stall “until the election was over”. Can we get back to life now?

OK, Mr. Optimism here is going to tell you now that we may have hit a low point. Visually and statistically, it appears that we are starting to roll into a buyers market. Some have called this a while ago, but they were premature. This may just be where we are at right now and could totally change with the massive increases in the Dow Jones since the day after the election. As a financially wise friend of mine states, “the stock market is where everyone gets their money”. Buy low. We learn this when we are kids. Are the adults going to start snapping up bargains now that they observe sunshine in the markets? Should people wait to sell? Trying to time the market doesn’t always work out, so if it is best for your family to sell, sell. If it doesn’t hurt anything to keep your real estate for now, keep it. Total Sales will increase from where they are now. Overall Naples was at 484 for October 2024, the lowest point since September 2017, but very close to where it was in December 2023 when we hit 491. For reference, previous to COVID, we averaged around 700 sales in October. So, not horrible, but not great. I chalk it up to caution, and that’s OK. But get ready for the bounce and make sure you hire talent. ZIP’s 34102 & 34103 were down as well as Golden Gate Estates.

Lastly, our Days on Market category is looking like it is normalizing. ZIP 34103 has come down from the huge spike over the last couple of months to 128 days, but that is still 80.3% higher than October 2023. ZIP 34102 has now spiked up 109.8% from October 2023 to the same 128 days. I am seeing price drops in both areas as sellers are showing their motivation to move on. Golden Gate Estates is also up, rising 33.3% to 44 days and the Overall Naples Market climbed to 71 days, 121.9% higher than October 2023. But look at the graph. If the market calms and buyers start to enter the market in a meaningful way, we shouldn’t see these really big percentage changes next year because it looks like we are finally hitting the “normal” region, which pre-dates COVID but is after the great recession a bit. Basically 2014 through the late winter of 2020. This was a healthy growth time, mainly due to low interest rates, but ultimately the final calculation of affordability. People that are smarter than me really need to figure out and balance the market, bring affordability under control and stimulate housing production. It’s not like the need for housing is going away anytime soon. Materials need to come way down as well. There are too many homes in this country suffering from deferred maintenance. But I can assume that it’s not just the cost of materials, but lazy homeowners and/or slum lords that don’t take care of their things. Take care of your things, man!

 

As you have noticed, I have a lot to say. To get your needs heard, consider the passionate voice of Josh Amolsch.

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