What a wild ride the next 16 months could be.
Can you believe that we are half-way through 2023 already? Before you know it, we will be voting for the next President of the United States. What a wild ride this next 16 months could be. You don’t have to be a Naples Realtor to formulate an opinion or forecast how the Naples real estate market will evolve during this election cycle. We all see the headlines, measure our investments and analyze our risk exposure as routinely as we brush our teeth. So what are your thoughts on where we are at as a community, as a country? If you are reading this article, you have investigator DNA and I appreciate that about you. Investigators run together and communicate on ideas and form alliances based on trust and vision. From the private to the generals, from the janitor to the manager, we work together to assess and move forward toward our success mission. Maybe you have the right Realtor in your life… maybe you don’t.
Here is the Naples June ’23 Housing Market Update.
The Median Sales Price for the Overall Naples Market inched up in June 2022 by 1.33% while coastal ZIP codes 34102 (Downtown) and 34103 (Moorings, Park Shore) dropped by over 15%. But that happens in high-priced areas where homes take longer to sell. Overall, those ZIP’s are increasing. Just look at the 3-year graph below. The orange, green and red lines look like those elevation charts on the All Trails® app that show the expert level trails. No thanks, my knees wouldn’t make it. Last time I did a trail like that was when my wife and I climbed Half Dome in Yosemite National Park so I could propose to her. Thankfully, we didn’t slip off the cables and fall to our death and she said yes. Win/Win.
Even though 34102 and 34103 were down in June from May, the Median Sales Price in 34102 is still 43.8% higher in June 2023 than it was in June 2022. This is a whole 12 months after interest rates started their historically fast climb to about 7%. Where will be at in the next 16 months? Will the land of milk and honey increase even more? Now, buyers in this price point don’t typically finance a purchase of this magnitude, but they do tend to slow down to observe the economy to see how things will shake out. So to see this rise of the Median Sales Price in the highest priced ZIP code in Naples is to believe that buyers of these luxury homes are feeling pretty confident about the most coveted neighborhoods Naples has to offer. I happen to have the lowest price listing in Royal Harbor, have you seen it?
Let’s talk about New Listings. The chart below shows the amount of New Listings that came on the market each month for the last 3 years. Notice the three peaks and how low the most recent peak is. Those peaks are the month of March, and after each March, New Listings begin to fall. This is due to the vacation season ending and sellers thinking that they won’t find a buyer. Well, buyers are still looking during the off season, trust me. Why would sellers wait to list their property until a time when the amount of overall listings (their competition) swells?? That just doesn’t make any sense to me, especially as the Median Sales Price continues to increase all through Summer. Savvy real estate buyers use the internet, and their Realtor of choice, to monitor real estate in one of the most desirable towns in America. They don’t have to physically be in town to fall in love with your property. And by all means, if it is a home worth purchasing to said buyer, these folks will hop on a plane (maybe even their own) to fly down to see their next home. Maybe you have the right Realtor in your life… maybe you don’t.
Another good reason to list your home right now is that inventory, while on the rise from February 2022, has now been falling the last 2 months to Jan/Feb 2021 levels. Not nearly what we saw during Summer of 2021, but still really low to historical norms. Where will inventory be in the next 16 months? Months of supply have been falling as well, which ties in to inventory and new listings reductions. I included the below Redfin research map in the May market update, but it’s so telling of the change we are experiencing. More than 39,000 people (more than any other state by far), were searching to move to Florida versus out of state between Mar 2023 – May 2023. Cape Coral and Sarasota came in 7th and 6th, respectively, in the top 10 areas people are moving to in Florida between March 2023 and May 2023. Other Florida areas are the typical Miami, Tampa and Orlando. This all has an influence on our little slice of heaven here in Naples. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Naples population increased 5.5% between 2020 and 2022 with an expected 10% growth by 2025! Also reported was the almost doubling of home prices all over Naples, including Port Royal and Aqualane Shores between 2020 to present day.
As you go out to celebrate the 247th birthday of the United States of America, and if you are thinking about selling your property that you indeed have the privilege of owning, consider having a conversation with me. I can help you only move once while getting you the highest possible dollar amount for your existing home while getting you into a lovely replacement property that mat fit your current needs better. I’m not a part-time agent like so many of the agents in this town. Licensed and full-time in real estate for over 10 years with tens of millions of dollars sold and trained by some of the very best in the business, I will not let you down.