Is it possible for a journalist to dig too deep into a story or not enough? Does the reporting we receive on any given topic satiate our appetite and desire for information or does it merely tide us over until the next data dump we routinely digest? November 2023 housing updates for Naples, Florida, America and any forecasts thereof remind me of sports statistics. There are a lot of numbers, and they are all interconnected and related to one another in a way that we may never truly understand as humans. A trail of numbers that reveals where we have been and where we are heading. Both of which explain a lot of who we are.
Valuations rooted in past performances reflect out into a yet unrealized future reality, illuminating portions of the landscape that can give us outlines of structure in the mind’s eye. Much like a blind person who corrects their walking path as they feel the ground below their feet starting to slope more and more. Before we look at a few of the latest Naples housing market numbers from November 2023, try to think about why they matter to you. What actions can you take if they continue in the direction they are headed or maybe if they do a 180° turn or just simply stay flat.
Naples Housing Prices
If you own a home in the Naples area, you may have seen your home value stay fairly flat in 2023 after a steep rise in value since late 2019. The graph below indicates that the Overall Naples Area housing values in November 2023 (both SFR & Condos) are down 3.3% to $580,000 from November 2022. It seems as though prices have peaked, but economists seem to believe that once interest rates fall further, buying activity will pick up which will send prices back towards the stars. I saw today that mortgage rates are at about 7.11%, down from 7.94% we had in October. Keep in mind, mid 7% interest rates are the historical average. The problem (whichever way you want to look at it) is that home prices are very high or wages are too low. Affordability is the problem for most folks.
Naples Housing Market Update | Median Sales Price
But what about 2024? Forecasts are big business and are really important to a lot of people. Let’s take a look at some headlines regarding 2024 real estate in the United States.
- Zillow | Zillow predicts more homes for sale, improved affordability in 2024.
- Yahoo! Finance | Housing Market 2024: Expert Predicts Up To 4% Rise in US Home Prices
- Realtor.com | The Magic Number: What Mortgage Rates Would Get Buyers and Sellers Excited To Move?
- The Daily Record | Bright MLS housing forecast: 2024 will be better for buyers
- New York Post | Economists forecast 50% recession odds amid stark economic slowdown in 2024
Kinda all over the board. Historically, homes appreciate 4-6% annually and if there is an economic slowdown strong enough to be considered a recession, are buyers really expected to have a great year in 2024? Don’t know. But if we just put one foot in front of the other and plan our lives the best we know how, and seek guidance when we are up against a subject we are weak in, we will all be just fine. I don’t know how to work on cars very well, so I hire a mechanic. I am also a terrible electrician and plumber. I know my limitations and gladly pay for the expertise so the job get done right. This same practice is why 89% of buyers use Realtors to purchase homes and why 93% of sellers hire Realtors to market and sell their properties (per NAR).
What would help with affordability?
More homes for sale. More supply of homes means lower prices for homes. Housing for sale in Naples in November 2023 rose again to a level not seen since November 2020. This is a good trend, and it is not new construction that is leading the increase. RESALE homes are being listed. This partly explains the levelling off of home prices in the region. Of course these numbers change quite a bit when we start looking at individual ZIP codes and neighborhoods and I could go into GREAT detail on any one of those topics. But I am lucky enough to have kept you reading this long, so I will keep this Naples market update to the point. Contact me for further discussion on specific areas/homes.
Months of Supply
This graph below is really interesting. This one illustrates the Months of Supply and I have four ZIP codes shown to give a broad variety of housing tiers the Naples housing market offers. 34102, 34103, 34117 & the Overall Naples Market which includes all Naples ZIP codes. Months of Supply is calculated by finding the average amount of monthly transactions over the last 12 months and dividing the current inventory amount by that average sales number. A healthy market has 5-6 months of inventory while a seller’s market has 3 months or below of inventory. Looking at the graph below, 34102 & 34103 follow similar paths, as similar areas will do in many categories. Overall Naples also follows a similar path, but 34117 has shot down since July 2022 to 3.8 months of inventory. The overall Naples housing market in November 2023 is turning towards a more normal market (statistically) while the higher end markets on the coast are well into the 8-10 months of inventory suggesting a buyer’s market there.
Naples Housing Market | Months of Supply
I was at a listing appointment recently to discuss the upcoming sale of a condo high up in a building on the beach that overlooks the Gulf of Mexico. This places has a spectacular view of the Gulf with no other buildings or trees impeding the view. As I sat on the lanai with the owners drinking a fantastic cup of coffee the owner provided me, I began to go over my research on comparable sales. The meeting went two hours and I don’t want to bore you with all of the details, nor can I out of respect for the owners and Florida law. But the point is, when you look at the Naples housing market to see where you and/or your home fits in, there is more to consider than just the recently sold homes that are like yours. Just how it is not the amount of syrup you put on your pancakes that will determine their deliciousness. From the batter to the brain matter of the chef, it all… matters.
As I asked earlier in this article, what do these numbers mean to you? How do YOUR plans fit in to this swarm of interest rates, land development, mosquitos? Life is always changing and holding on to that low interest rate and built-up equity will only last so long before life takes you in a different direction. Having an experienced, completely invested Realtor on your team to help you see the forest through the trees is a benefit. Give me a call to get started on your project.
Josh Amolsch | Naples Luxury Real Estate
