If 2025 was the year of "wait and see," January 2026 has officially kicked off the year of "let’s make a move."
Looking back at my January 2025 and December 2025 updates, the narrative has shifted dramatically. A year ago, we were talking about an inventory explosion—up a massive 41.4%—as the market recalibrated. By December, we had entered a smarter market where the standoff between buyers and sellers was finally beginning to thaw.
Today, that thaw has turned into a flood of activity. The hesitation is gone, and the data proves it.
Price vs Value
You’ll notice some wild swings in the Median Sales Price this month, particularly the 90.3% jump in 34103. It’s important to remember that the median is simply the middle point of all sales—it’s the "50-yard line" of the market. Unlike an average, which can be completely skewed by one or two massive estate sales, the median tells us where the bulk of the activity is happening.
In 34102 (Old Naples): The -36.1% dip in median price doesn't mean your home lost a third of its value. It simply reflects a shift in the mix of what sold. Last year, we saw several record-breaking ultra-luxury closings; This month, the activity was concentrated in more "modest" luxury condos and smaller single-family homes, pulling that middle number down.
In 34103 (Park Shore/Moorings): The +90.3% surge is the "La Mer Effect." When we close high-end beachfront inventory like my $2.9M sale at La Mer in Park Shore, it pushes that middle-point significantly higher. It’s a sign of a "top-heavy" month where the luxury tier outperformed the entry-level.
Overall Market: The slight -4.7% adjustment across all of Naples is actually a healthy sign. As I noted in December 2025, we are seeing "Smart Pricing." Sellers are becoming more realistic, which is exactly what is fueling that 22.5% increase in pending sales.
In short: Prices aren't necessarily "dropping"—they are stabilizing to a point where buyers are finally ready to sign on the dotted line. Even developers are buzzing around this incredible opportuity to build 25 units 7 minutes from 5th Ave S:
Median Sales Price
Overall Naples Market - $623,250 | -4.7%34102 - $1,662,500 | -36.1%
34103 - $1,537,500 | +90.3%
Golden Gate Estates - $589,000 | -5.0%
Perhaps the most telling stat of the month is the 16.7% drop in New Listings. While buyers are out in force, sellers are being much more selective about when they hit the market. In prime areas like 34102 and 34103, new inventory is down nearly 28%.
This creates a "scarcity play." Unlike last year, when buyers had a growing buffet of options to choose from, they are now competing for a smaller pool of fresh properties. For sellers, this means less competition and a captive audience; for buyers, it means when a quality home hits the market, you have to move with the same speed we saw in my recent Naples Bay Resort and La Mer (Park Shore) sales.
New Listings
34102 - 134 | -28.0%
34103 - 121 | -27.1%
Golden Gate Estates - 113 | -4.2%
Inventory is Tightening
Patience vs Pace
Total Inventory
34102 - 553 | -14.3%
34103 - 496 | -6.9%
Golden Gate Estates - 404 | -6.7%
The Big Story: Pending Sales Are On Fire
The most striking takeaway from this month's data is the massive jump in Pending Sales. Across the overall Naples market, we are up 22.5% compared to last January.
In the coastal corridors where I spend most of my time, the demand is even more intense:
34102 (Old Naples): A staggering +46.2% increase in pending sales.
34103 (Park Shore/Moorings): Up 16.7%.
Total Sales: The 34102 area saw a 25% jump in closed transactions year-over-year.
What does this mean? The "bottleneck" is officially broken. Buyers who were sitting on the sidelines throughout 2025 have re-entered the market with serious intent. This isn't just theoretical; we’re closing significant deals. This past month, I was proud to represent my clients in the sale of a stunning $2,900,000 beachfront condo at La Mer in Park Shore, followed immediately by a $2,800,000 sale at Naples Bay Resort last week.
Pending Sales
34102 - 57 | +46.2%
34103 - 49 | +16.7%
Golden Gate Estates - 65 | +10.2%
While pending sales tell us where the market is heading, Total Closed Sales show us what’s actually crossing the finish line. Overall, Naples saw a steady 1.2% increase in closings, but the real story is in the luxury hubs:
34102 (Old Naples): Up a massive 25.0%.
34103 (Park Shore/Moorings): Up 17.2%.
In December 2025, I mentioned pricing was key. These January numbers are the proof. Buyers aren't just browsing; they are executing. High-end buyers have clearly regained their confidence, choosing to secure their piece of Naples now rather than waiting for a "bottom" that already passed.
Total Sales
34102 - 30 | +25.0%
34103 - 34 | +17.2%
Golden Gate Estates - 35 | -25.5%














